....
For me it is about time, expense and risk - either option is going to cost my time but I would not be prepared to do an in-place upgrade to Win10 for risk of screwing my system and/or some of my other important apps. ...
Which apps are those? Have they not been upgraded to run on Win 10?
I can understand keeping a Win 7 system around to run a mission critical app.
....
For me it is about time, expense and risk - either option is going to cost my time but I would not be prepared to do an in-place upgrade to Win10 for risk of screwing my system and/or some of my other important apps. I could buy new hardware and do a managed migration but that comes at cost.
.......
I also have the 'risk' that Adobe may significantly increase subscription rates. On balance, I think the best option is to spend my time looking at alternatives.
I have looked at alternatives as well so I am prepared to migrate if Adobe forces me to be cloud based only ( I doubt if they will) or if the price is doubled (I doubt that as well). BTW, I converted from Win 7 to Win 10 years ago, and would not go back. On new hardware, Win 10 has been solid as a rock for me.
IMO, and many others, the best RAW converter alternative to LR is Capture One. But it comes with a price as well, both in expense and in learning time.
I have been running both CO and LR in parallel for years. I still do. Each has their strengths and weaknesses.
If you only will buy and run CO, be prepared to pay more money than you pay Adobe. But you get a very good product.
CO's approach to post processing is different enough from LR that there might be some significant learning time involved.
Be prepared to buy and pay for a new DAM - CO's catalog is very poor. I'd recommend iMatch, but be prepared to spend time learning it. I continue to use LR as my DAM.
Be prepared to buy and learn new HDR and panoramic software. I have a couple of them that I occasionally use instead of LR.
Be prepared to either give up Photoshop, or pay more for it. I'm not sure you can get a new version for Win 7.
If you shoot higher ISOs, you will also need some better noise reduction software. CO is quite good on low ISOs, but LR is better on high ISOs.
For me, keeping up with hardware technology is as important as keeping up with software technology. It is just an investment that I am willing to pay for.