So, I got my laptop back and fiddled with LR this morning. For clarity, the thumbnail looks something like this:
And when I click the exclamation point, I get a dialog box that looks like this:
Picking one of the images, I clicked Import Settings from Disk. This cleared the exclamation point (and deleted all of my edits but this is for the cause of SCIENCE!!!
At this point, I added keywords, a Job, and GPS coordinates. The exclamation point did not return -- which is what I expected based upon my experiments a few days ago.
I then selected all the images for a day -- all of these were tiffs, on a remote file system, and had permissions like this:
-rwx------ 1 pedz staff 10541456 May 8 2003 650S0346.TIF
I clicked the exclamation point, clicked "Retry Metadata Export", and
very surprisingly, it created 175 xmp sidecars. Not all of the thumbnails had the exclamation point but it created sidecars for those too. At this point, all the exclamation points for all of the thumbnails for that day were gone.
I deleted all of the xmp sidecars and the exclamation points did
not return. I restarted LR and still no exclamation points.
So... I'm pretty sure there must be a bit internal to LR that says "Some export at some time failed" -- it is
not a bit that says the external and internal metadata disagree. There seems to be no way to clear this bit other than the two choices presented -- either pull in the old from the disk or push out the new. If it pushes out the new as an XMP sidecar, I'm happy. I can select all my images, push out all the XMP, go to sleep for a day, and then delete the XMP files if I want to or perhaps archive them or whatever.
This same bit must also somehow confused how the metadata is written out. I did another sanity check and found that usually, as we have all seen in the past, metadata to JPGs and TIFs are written to the original images and not xmp side cars.
For me, all this crumbles the
Principle of least astonishment.
Also, for any who want to follow in my footsteps, when the "Lightroom Classic" => "Catalog Settings" => "Automatically write changes into XMP" is clicked, LR starts syncing the metadata out to disk including modifying JPGs. If you try to quit, you get a warning that the write hasn't finished (but its ok to quit anyway it says). There is no task progress bar up in the top left corner. So... if you are going to play and experiment, don't do like I did and muck about with your master catalog.